| ゾーン | EV | SD(荒れ度) | アクション |
|---|---|---|---|
| 鉄板 (Ironclad) | 高 | 低 | 厚張り (Bet Big) |
| 穴狙い (Long Shot) | 高 | 高 | 少額分散 (Spread) |
| 危険 (Trap) | 低 | 高 | 見 (Pass) |
| 養分 (Sucker) | 低 | 低 | 見 (Pass) |
| 日付 | 2026-02-21 | 会場 | 芦屋 (21) |
|---|---|---|---|
| レース | 7R | 発走 | 11:29 |
| データ作成 | 2026-02-21 11:21:29 | ||
| 3連単 |
--
Sim #3
(7.22% / 24.9%)
|
払戻 | ¥1,220 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 人気 | 1 | 状態 | final |
| 更新 | 2026-02-21 23:47:12 | ||
| 判定 | 🎯 的中(買い目に含まれていました) | ||
展開の理由:
平均スタート0.14、展示タイム6.82(2位タイ)、展示スタート0.03とスリット気配が最も強力。atk_coefも高く、展開を作る中心人物。
スリット予測:
枠なり進入。4コース新出がスリット後に覗く形になり、内3艇にプレッシャーをかける展開。
支配的メカニズム:
Pattern 1-A(イン逃げ・壁残り)とPattern 4-B(4コースまくり差し・イン残し)のハイブリッド構成。カドが攻めてもインが残る物理スジを優先。
判断根拠:
レースエントロピーが0.8147と高く、1コース香月選手の当地1着率(31.8%)も低いため、本命1点に絞るリスクが高い。一方で、4コース新出選手の展示気配とスタート力(0.14)が突出しており、イン逃げとカド強襲の二段構えが必要な局面である。
| SD閾値 | 10 | Entropy | 0.8147 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top1 | 10.27% | Top5合計 | 34.12% |
| 勝ち方分布 | 逃げ 51.35% / 差し 15.96% / まくり 15.96% / まくり差し 16.72% | ||
| ゾーン | EV | SD(荒れ度) | アクション |
|---|---|---|---|
| 鉄板 (Ironclad) | 高 | 低 | 厚張り (Bet Big) |
| 穴狙い (Long Shot) | 高 | 高 | 少額分散 (Spread) |
| 危険 (Trap) | 低 | 高 | 見 (Pass) |
| 養分 (Sucker) | 低 | 低 | 見 (Pass) |
平均オッズ: 51.64
| 結果 |
🎯 的中
-- (¥1,220)
|
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 試行回数 | 100000 | イン逃げ率 | 28.6% |
| 攻め艇 | 4 | シミュ結果 | - |
| 勝ち方分布 | 逃げ: 51.35% / 差し: 15.96% / まくり: 15.96% / まくり差し: 16.72% | ||
| 艇 | 1着率 | 2連帯率 (2着率) |
3連帯率 (3着率) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51.3% | 69.9% (18.6%) | 78% (8.1%) | |
| 10.4% | 43.9% (33.5%) | 59.2% (15.3%) | |
| 9.1% | 34.3% (25.2%) | 54% (19.7%) | |
| 23.4% | 34.4% (11%) | 62.9% (28.5%) | |
| 2.9% | 10.6% (7.7%) | 30.9% (20.3%) | |
| 2.9% | 6.8% (3.9%) | 14.9% (8%) |
| # | 出現率(%) | オッズ / EV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
-- |
10.27% (10.3%) |
23.3
EV 2.393
|
| 2 |
-- |
7.38% (17.7%) |
19.6
EV 1.446
|
| 3 |
🎯
-- |
7.22% (24.9%) |
16.6
EV 1.199
|
| 4 |
-- |
4.67% (29.5%) |
19.7
EV 0.92
|
| 5 |
-- |
4.58% (34.1%) |
23.5
EV 1.076
|
| 6 |
-- |
2.98% (37.1%) |
27.4
EV 0.817
|
| 7 |
-- |
2.69% (39.8%) |
108.4
EV 2.916
|
| 8 |
-- |
2.56% (42.4%) |
114.3
EV 2.926
|
| 9 |
-- |
2.52% (44.9%) |
43.9
EV 1.106
|
| 10 |
-- |
2.51% (47.4%) |
87.7
EV 2.201
|
| 11 |
-- |
2.2% (49.6%) |
41.6
EV 0.915
|
| 12 |
-- |
1.87% (51.5%) |
48.2
EV 0.901
|
| 13 |
-- |
1.85% (53.3%) |
71.4
EV 1.321
|
| 14 |
-- |
1.77% (55.1%) |
42.4
EV 0.75
|
| 15 |
-- |
1.75% (56.8%) |
86.9
EV 1.521
|
| 16 |
-- |
1.68% (58.5%) |
67.8
EV 1.139
|
| 17 |
-- |
1.63% (60.1%) |
50.5
EV 0.823
|
| 18 |
-- |
1.6% (61.7%) |
68.5
EV 1.096
|
| 19 |
-- |
1.57% (63.3%) |
69.3
EV 1.088
|
| 20 |
-- |
1.42% (64.7%) |
71.4
EV 1.014
|
| 21 |
-- |
1.26% (66.0%) |
106.5
EV 1.342
|
| 22 |
-- |
1.18% (67.2%) |
73.4
EV 0.866
|
| 23 |
-- |
1.18% (68.3%) |
65.7
EV 0.775
|
| 24 |
-- |
1.15% (69.5%) |
141.8
EV 1.631
|
| 25 |
-- |
1.02% (70.5%) |
36.3
EV 0.37
|
| 26 |
-- |
0.96% (71.5%) |
273.4
EV 2.625
|
| 27 |
-- |
0.91% (72.4%) |
43.4
EV 0.395
|
| 28 |
-- |
0.9% (73.3%) |
41.9
EV 0.377
|
| 29 |
-- |
0.89% (74.2%) |
85.3
EV 0.759
|
| 30 |
-- |
0.85% (75.0%) |
34.6
EV 0.294
|
| 31 |
-- |
0.84% (75.9%) |
47.1
EV 0.396
|
| 32 |
-- |
0.83% (76.7%) |
82
EV 0.681
|
| 33 |
-- |
0.83% (77.5%) |
100.3
EV 0.832
|
| 34 |
-- |
0.83% (78.4%) |
46.2
EV 0.383
|
| 35 |
-- |
0.81% (79.2%) |
41.3
EV 0.335
|
| 36 |
-- |
0.79% (80.0%) |
61.4
EV 0.485
|
| 37 |
-- |
0.73% (80.7%) |
32
EV 0.234
|
| 38 |
-- |
0.67% (81.4%) |
192.4
EV 1.289
|
| 39 |
-- |
0.6% (82.0%) |
40.7
EV 0.244
|
| 40 |
-- |
0.6% (82.6%) |
53.4
EV 0.32
|
| 41 |
-- |
0.59% (83.1%) |
55.6
EV 0.328
|
| 42 |
-- |
0.58% (83.7%) |
166.9
EV 0.968
|
| 43 |
-- |
0.58% (84.3%) |
56.6
EV 0.328
|
| 44 |
-- |
0.57% (84.9%) |
248.2
EV 1.415
|
| 45 |
-- |
0.55% (85.4%) |
248.2
EV 1.365
|
| 46 |
-- |
0.47% (85.9%) |
78.6
EV 0.369
|
| 47 |
-- |
0.46% (86.4%) |
171.4
EV 0.788
|
| 48 |
-- |
0.46% (86.8%) |
74.5
EV 0.343
|
| 49 |
-- |
0.45% (87.3%) |
46.2
EV 0.208
|
| 50 |
-- |
0.44% (87.7%) |
30.9
EV 0.136
|
| 51 |
-- |
0.44% (88.1%) |
265.7
EV 1.169
|
| 52 |
-- |
0.44% (88.6%) |
628.8
EV 2.767
|
| 53 |
-- |
0.41% (89.0%) |
820.2
EV 3.363
|
| 54 |
-- |
0.37% (89.4%) |
70.6
EV 0.261
|
| 55 |
-- |
0.37% (89.7%) |
108.4
EV 0.401
|
| 56 |
-- |
0.35% (90.1%) |
419.2
EV 1.467
|
| 57 |
-- |
0.35% (90.4%) |
164
EV 0.574
|
| 58 |
-- |
0.34% (90.8%) |
98.2
EV 0.334
|
| 59 |
-- |
0.34% (91.1%) |
258.4
EV 0.879
|
| 60 |
-- |
0.31% (91.4%) |
299.4
EV 0.928
|
| 61 |
-- |
0.31% (91.7%) |
538.9
EV 1.671
|
| 62 |
-- |
0.31% (92.0%) |
161.2
EV 0.5
|
| 63 |
-- |
0.3% (92.3%) |
205
EV 0.615
|
| 64 |
-- |
0.3% (92.6%) |
294.7
EV 0.884
|
| 65 |
-- |
0.29% (92.9%) |
104.2
EV 0.302
|
| 66 |
-- |
0.29% (93.2%) |
314.4
EV 0.912
|
| 67 |
-- |
0.29% (93.5%) |
118.6
EV 0.344
|
| 68 |
-- |
0.29% (93.8%) |
144
EV 0.418
|
| 69 |
-- |
0.27% (94.1%) |
554.8
EV 1.498
|
| 70 |
-- |
0.24% (94.3%) |
184.9
EV 0.444
|
| 71 |
-- |
0.23% (94.5%) |
59.8
EV 0.138
|
| 72 |
-- |
0.23% (94.8%) |
48
EV 0.11
|
| 73 |
-- |
0.22% (95.0%) |
122.4
EV 0.269
|
| 74 |
-- |
0.21% (95.2%) |
184.9
EV 0.388
|
| 75 |
-- |
0.21% (95.4%) |
129.2
EV 0.271
|
| 76 |
-- |
0.21% (95.6%) |
251.5
EV 0.528
|
| 77 |
-- |
0.21% (95.8%) |
140.7
EV 0.295
|
| 78 |
-- |
0.2% (96.0%) |
112.2
EV 0.224
|
| 79 |
-- |
0.2% (96.2%) |
786
EV 1.572
|
| 80 |
-- |
0.2% (96.4%) |
362.7
EV 0.725
|
| 81 |
-- |
0.19% (96.6%) |
509.8
EV 0.969
|
| 82 |
-- |
0.18% (96.8%) |
209.6
EV 0.377
|
| 83 |
-- |
0.18% (97.0%) |
384.9
EV 0.693
|
| 84 |
-- |
0.17% (97.2%) |
106.5
EV 0.181
|
| 85 |
-- |
0.16% (97.3%) |
330.9
EV 0.529
|
| 86 |
-- |
0.16% (97.5%) |
161.2
EV 0.258
|
| 87 |
-- |
0.15% (97.6%) |
43.9
EV 0.066
|
| 88 |
-- |
0.15% (97.8%) |
177.9
EV 0.267
|
| 89 |
-- |
0.14% (97.9%) |
471.6
EV 0.66
|
| 90 |
-- |
0.12% (98.0%) |
460.1
EV 0.552
|
| 91 |
-- |
0.12% (98.2%) |
188.6
EV 0.226
|
| 92 |
-- |
0.12% (98.3%) |
589.5
EV 0.707
|
| 93 |
-- |
0.11% (98.4%) |
362.7
EV 0.399
|
| 94 |
-- |
0.11% (98.5%) |
64.1
EV 0.071
|
| 95 |
-- |
0.11% (98.6%) |
129.2
EV 0.142
|
|
香月 大介
B1 / 福岡 / 53.2kg / -0.5
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.18 / 展示 .20 (6.80) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 3.24 (2連 11.27% / 3連 18.31%) | 機力 | M:12(26.20%) B:155(38.02%) |
|
小野 信樹
B1 / 岡山 / 53.4kg / -0.5
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.17 / 展示 F.04 (6.84) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 4.00 (2連 23.61% / 3連 34.72%) | 機力 | M:54(50.00%) B:116(44.44%) |
| 日 | R | 進入 | ST | 着 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1日目 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 4 |
|
谷本 幸司
B1 / 愛知 / 52.0kg / -0.5
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.18 / 展示 .00 (6.88) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 5.19 (2連 30.23% / 3連 47.67%) | 機力 | M:33(30.61%) B:125(33.16%) |
| 日 | R | 進入 | ST | 着 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1日目 | 3 | 6 | 0.08 | 3 |
|
新出 浩司
B1 / 大阪 / 52.4kg / 0.0
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.14 / 展示 .03 (6.82) | 事故 | F1 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 4.29 (2連 15.71% / 3連 38.57%) | 機力 | M:52(34.63%) B:111(28.88%) |
|
萩原 知哉
B1 / 東京 / 54.6kg / -0.5
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.17 / 展示 .07 (6.81) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 4.09 (2連 13.75% / 3連 32.50%) | 機力 | M:28(42.53%) B:161(33.33%) |
|
中村 紋夕梨
B2 / 愛知 / 47.0kg / -0.5
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.19 / 展示 .31 (6.77) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 2.37 (2連 4.41% / 3連 11.76%) | 機力 | M:45(37.38%) B:112(23.03%) |