| ゾーン | EV | SD(荒れ度) | アクション |
|---|---|---|---|
| 鉄板 (Ironclad) | 高 | 低 | 厚張り (Bet Big) |
| 穴狙い (Long Shot) | 高 | 高 | 少額分散 (Spread) |
| 危険 (Trap) | 低 | 高 | 見 (Pass) |
| 養分 (Sucker) | 低 | 低 | 見 (Pass) |
| 日付 | 2026-02-21 | 会場 | 平和島 (04) |
|---|---|---|---|
| レース | 5R | 発走 | 12:54 |
| データ作成 | 2026-02-21 12:46:18 | ||
| 3連単 |
--
Sim #13
(1.96% / 60.2%)
|
払戻 | ¥2,870 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 人気 | 12 | 状態 | final |
| 更新 | 2026-02-21 23:47:12 | ||
展開の理由:
atk_coef(1.086)が高く、展示スタート(F.03)からもカドからの攻め気が強い。これが内枠を叩くか、抵抗を誘発する起点となる。
スリット予測:
枠なりから展示通り123/465の進入を想定。4号艇がスリット先行し絞る展開。
支配的メカニズム:
1号艇が4号艇の攻めをブロックして逃げるPattern 1-B(抵抗して逃げ)。外を回る艇と、懐が開いたところを突く6号艇・3号艇の連動。
判断根拠:
1号艇松田のイン信頼度が極めて高く(1着率76%)、当地相性も80.6%と盤石。entropy(0.78)が低く、本命サイドの決着が濃厚なため、資金を集中させる戦略を採用。
| SD閾値 | 9.2 | Entropy | 0.7819 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top1 | 9.07% | Top5合計 | 36.14% |
| 勝ち方分布 | 逃げ 67.1% / 差し 8.48% / まくり 14.05% / まくり差し 10.37% | ||
| ゾーン | EV | SD(荒れ度) | アクション |
|---|---|---|---|
| 鉄板 (Ironclad) | 高 | 低 | 厚張り (Bet Big) |
| 穴狙い (Long Shot) | 高 | 高 | 少額分散 (Spread) |
| 危険 (Trap) | 低 | 高 | 見 (Pass) |
| 養分 (Sucker) | 低 | 低 | 見 (Pass) |
平均オッズ: 18.94
| 結果 |
-- (¥2,870)
|
||
|---|---|---|---|
| 試行回数 | 100000 | イン逃げ率 | 76.6% |
| 攻め艇 | 4 | シミュ結果 | - |
| 勝ち方分布 | 逃げ: 67.1% / 差し: 8.48% / まくり: 14.05% / まくり差し: 10.37% | ||
| 艇 | 1着率 | 2連帯率 (2着率) |
3連帯率 (3着率) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66.1% | 80% (13.9%) | 83.5% (3.5%) | |
| 6% | 18.9% (13%) | 28.9% (9.9%) | |
| 8.5% | 33.4% (24.8%) | 60.8% (27.5%) | |
| 9.6% | 29.4% (19.7%) | 56.9% (27.5%) | |
| 1.9% | 5.8% (3.9%) | 15.4% (9.6%) | |
| 7.9% | 32.5% (24.7%) | 54.5% (22%) |
| # | 出現率(%) | オッズ / EV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
-- |
9.07% (9.1%) |
9.6
EV 0.871
|
| 2 |
-- |
7.05% (16.1%) |
12.3
EV 0.867
|
| 3 |
-- |
6.92% (23.0%) |
27.3
EV 1.889
|
| 4 |
-- |
6.87% (29.9%) |
15.3
EV 1.051
|
| 5 |
-- |
6.23% (36.1%) |
26.7
EV 1.663
|
| 6 |
-- |
4.79% (40.9%) |
15.2
EV 0.728
|
| 7 |
-- |
4.14% (45.1%) |
17.9
EV 0.741
|
| 8 |
-- |
3.35% (48.4%) |
23.5
EV 0.787
|
| 9 |
-- |
2.95% (51.4%) |
14.1
EV 0.416
|
| 10 |
-- |
2.78% (54.2%) |
27.1
EV 0.753
|
| 11 |
-- |
2.05% (56.2%) |
214.8
EV 4.403
|
| 12 |
-- |
2.02% (58.2%) |
24.8
EV 0.501
|
| 13 |
🎯
-- |
1.96% (60.2%) |
36.8
EV 0.721
|
| 14 |
-- |
1.86% (62.0%) |
140.7
EV 2.617
|
| 15 |
-- |
1.83% (63.9%) |
22.4
EV 0.41
|
| 16 |
-- |
1.75% (65.6%) |
154.6
EV 2.706
|
| 17 |
-- |
1.47% (67.1%) |
76.5
EV 1.125
|
| 18 |
-- |
1.37% (68.5%) |
52.3
EV 0.717
|
| 19 |
-- |
1.36% (69.8%) |
37.9
EV 0.515
|
| 20 |
-- |
1.31% (71.1%) |
172.4
EV 2.258
|
| 21 |
-- |
1.22% (72.4%) |
128.7
EV 1.57
|
| 22 |
-- |
1.19% (73.5%) |
62.8
EV 0.747
|
| 23 |
-- |
1.18% (74.7%) |
67.3
EV 0.794
|
| 24 |
-- |
1.11% (75.8%) |
67.4
EV 0.748
|
| 25 |
-- |
0.9% (76.7%) |
52.2
EV 0.47
|
| 26 |
-- |
0.84% (77.6%) |
368.5
EV 3.095
|
| 27 |
-- |
0.78% (78.4%) |
38.2
EV 0.298
|
| 28 |
-- |
0.74% (79.1%) |
153.4
EV 1.135
|
| 29 |
-- |
0.73% (79.8%) |
98.6
EV 0.72
|
| 30 |
-- |
0.67% (80.5%) |
98.9
EV 0.663
|
| 31 |
-- |
0.66% (81.2%) |
167
EV 1.102
|
| 32 |
-- |
0.64% (81.8%) |
83.1
EV 0.532
|
| 33 |
-- |
0.62% (82.4%) |
65.1
EV 0.404
|
| 34 |
-- |
0.57% (83.0%) |
140.2
EV 0.799
|
| 35 |
-- |
0.57% (83.6%) |
212.3
EV 1.21
|
| 36 |
-- |
0.56% (84.1%) |
76.8
EV 0.43
|
| 37 |
-- |
0.55% (84.7%) |
341.7
EV 1.879
|
| 38 |
-- |
0.53% (85.2%) |
257.4
EV 1.364
|
| 39 |
-- |
0.53% (85.7%) |
274.3
EV 1.454
|
| 40 |
-- |
0.52% (86.2%) |
341.7
EV 1.777
|
| 41 |
-- |
0.5% (86.7%) |
139.2
EV 0.696
|
| 42 |
-- |
0.5% (87.2%) |
156.6
EV 0.783
|
| 43 |
-- |
0.45% (87.7%) |
141.3
EV 0.636
|
| 44 |
-- |
0.45% (88.1%) |
140.7
EV 0.633
|
| 45 |
-- |
0.43% (88.6%) |
150.9
EV 0.649
|
| 46 |
-- |
0.42% (89.0%) |
88.2
EV 0.37
|
| 47 |
-- |
0.41% (89.4%) |
124.8
EV 0.512
|
| 48 |
-- |
0.4% (89.8%) |
198.8
EV 0.795
|
| 49 |
-- |
0.37% (90.2%) |
119.7
EV 0.443
|
| 50 |
-- |
0.36% (90.5%) |
278.4
EV 1.002
|
| 51 |
-- |
0.35% (90.9%) |
102.1
EV 0.357
|
| 52 |
-- |
0.33% (91.2%) |
399.9
EV 1.32
|
| 53 |
-- |
0.33% (91.5%) |
67
EV 0.221
|
| 54 |
-- |
0.33% (91.9%) |
276.4
EV 0.912
|
| 55 |
-- |
0.31% (92.2%) |
481.9
EV 1.494
|
| 56 |
-- |
0.29% (92.5%) |
242.5
EV 0.703
|
| 57 |
-- |
0.28% (92.8%) |
213.5
EV 0.598
|
| 58 |
-- |
0.27% (93.0%) |
237.9
EV 0.642
|
| 59 |
-- |
0.26% (93.3%) |
375.9
EV 0.977
|
| 60 |
-- |
0.25% (93.5%) |
257.4
EV 0.644
|
| 61 |
-- |
0.24% (93.8%) |
187.9
EV 0.451
|
| 62 |
-- |
0.24% (94.0%) |
413
EV 0.991
|
| 63 |
-- |
0.23% (94.2%) |
91.6
EV 0.211
|
| 64 |
-- |
0.23% (94.5%) |
59.2
EV 0.136
|
| 65 |
-- |
0.22% (94.7%) |
108.3
EV 0.238
|
| 66 |
-- |
0.21% (94.9%) |
111.5
EV 0.234
|
| 67 |
-- |
0.2% (95.1%) |
344.8
EV 0.69
|
| 68 |
-- |
0.19% (95.3%) |
167.8
EV 0.319
|
| 69 |
-- |
0.19% (95.5%) |
318.5
EV 0.605
|
| 70 |
-- |
0.18% (95.7%) |
149.7
EV 0.269
|
| 71 |
-- |
0.18% (95.8%) |
145.7
EV 0.262
|
| 72 |
-- |
0.17% (96.0%) |
154
EV 0.262
|
| 73 |
-- |
0.17% (96.2%) |
475.8
EV 0.809
|
| 74 |
-- |
0.16% (96.3%) |
427.1
EV 0.683
|
| 75 |
-- |
0.16% (96.5%) |
143.4
EV 0.229
|
| 76 |
-- |
0.16% (96.7%) |
124
EV 0.198
|
| 77 |
-- |
0.15% (96.8%) |
180.7
EV 0.271
|
| 78 |
-- |
0.15% (97.0%) |
298.3
EV 0.447
|
| 79 |
-- |
0.14% (97.1%) |
159.9
EV 0.224
|
| 80 |
-- |
0.14% (97.2%) |
659.5
EV 0.923
|
| 81 |
-- |
0.13% (97.4%) |
637.1
EV 0.828
|
| 82 |
-- |
0.13% (97.5%) |
488.2
EV 0.635
|
| 83 |
-- |
0.12% (97.6%) |
432
EV 0.518
|
| 84 |
-- |
0.12% (97.7%) |
469.8
EV 0.564
|
| 85 |
-- |
0.12% (97.9%) |
1074
EV 1.289
|
| 86 |
-- |
0.12% (98.0%) |
166.3
EV 0.2
|
| 87 |
-- |
0.11% (98.1%) |
989.2
EV 1.088
|
| 88 |
-- |
0.11% (98.2%) |
722.9
EV 0.795
|
| 89 |
-- |
0.1% (98.3%) |
335.6
EV 0.336
|
|
松田 大志郎
A1 / 福岡 / 51.5kg / 0.0
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.16 / 展示 .12 (6.76) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 7.80 (2連 66.44% / 3連 79.19%) | 機力 | M:37(36.05%) B:29(29.84%) |
|
渥美 卓郎
B1 / 静岡 / 53.9kg / -0.5
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.18 / 展示 F.02 (6.77) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 3.54 (2連 9.20% / 3連 25.29%) | 機力 | M:72(42.36%) B:13(39.39%) |
|
近藤 颯斗
B1 / 愛知 / 52.0kg / -0.5
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.13 / 展示 F.04 (6.76) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 5.00 (2連 26.32% / 3連 53.95%) | 機力 | M:36(34.31%) B:50(41.88%) |
|
一柳 和孝
B1 / 埼玉 / 52.9kg / -0.5
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.15 / 展示 F.03 (6.78) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 5.55 (2連 32.53% / 3連 60.24%) | 機力 | M:14(36.17%) B:18(33.58%) |
|
吉田 宗弘
B1 / 東京 / 50.5kg / 0.0
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.19 / 展示 .11 (6.87) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 4.34 (2連 20.73% / 3連 40.24%) | 機力 | M:54(38.41%) B:27(30.71%) |
|
橋本 久和
B1 / 群馬 / 52.3kg / 0.0
|
|||
| スタート | 平均 0.19 / 展示 F.12 (6.80) | 事故 | F0 / L0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 勝率 | 5.27 (2連 35.29% / 3連 54.12%) | 機力 | M:43(43.57%) B:53(32.03%) |